Last April, the Bank of Spain published its first macroeconomic projections for the year, marked by the crisis caused by the Ukraine-Russia war. The report showed a decline in the country’s economic growth, 0.9 percent below what had been forecast, to 4.5 percent.
Because of this conflict, uncertainty has been created in the markets, affecting the confidence and spending of businesses and households. In addition to this lack of confidence, there are three other consequences that are disrupting the country’s economy.
- Rising commodity prices. The war has had an impact by decreasing economic activity but has increased prices on the raw materials market. In addition, “a hypothetical decrease or cut in the supply of Russian gas to Europe” would have negative repercussions on the continent’s activity.
- Continuity of bottlenecks in the global supply chain. The Bank of Spain is concerned about the evolution of supply and production chains, which worsened in the second quarter.
- Rising energy prices and bottlenecks in global value chains are pushing up inflation rates, which, although they were already on the rise before, commodity prices have risen and are contributing to a spike in current inflation.
The Bank of Spain mentions that this is temporary and that inflation is expected to rise by 7.5 per cent but to fall to 1.6 per cent in the coming years.